盗むするかどうかを盗むために

Excuse the awful title of this post for anyone who knows Japanese; was trying to translate "To steal or not to steal" or "Whether to steal or not to steal".

Another short theory post, this time regarding whether to rely on your opponent's discards, or to attempt to win with only the tiles you draw.

This is really just another common sense thing. At the beginning of the game, most of the time you don't want to be taking other player's discards. Not only would that limit your options late game, but it also reveals to your opponent what you are potentially going for.

In regards to limiting your options, for example if you declare Pon on a 1 Man, then in order to win, you either have to go for:

- All Pon
- Half/Full flush of Man
- Pon of Round/Self wind or Dragon
- Win from last discard/draw; "Bottom of the Ocean"

If however, you don't take the 1 Man, and therefore are left with two 1 Man in your hand, you can go for any hand possible; it just depends on how the rest of your hand looks. Also, your opponent can only guess what hand you are attempting based on your discards. Lastly, you have access to Riichi, which was discussed previously.

This isn't to say to never take discards early game, since a round/self wind or dragon means an instant win condition. Also, if your hand is nearly complete, 1-3 Shanten, then taking it would be wise even if it partially reveals your motives. This would force your opponents to play defensively, and quite possibly result in only you being in Tenpai if the game does end without a winner.

During and after the halfway point (since there are 69 tiles available to be drawn, this would be ~34 tiles left, or 1 full wall) is when you have to start relying on opponent's discards if you aren't already in Tenpai. Since the probability of drawing what you need is much lower than early game, attempting Riichi is much more difficult. That, coupled with the large discard pool, means a much lower chance of winning (which was elaborated on in my last post).

Endgame is where you really want to call everything possible (I consider endgame ~10 tiles left). Even if you can't win, you might want to go for Tenpai. In most cases, you would want to try and Tenpai. I say might because there are some situations where you would not want to reveal your hand (since the declaration of Tenpai at the end of a drawn game is coupled with showing your tiles). This could be because you don't want to show new opponents the way you play (aggressively, by focusing on completing your hand, or defensively, by keeping dangerous tiles to yourself). Of course a good player is able to do both, but even so there are situations where you don't want to reveal your hand.