Continuation of this post
This will be a short post, but it merely concludes what I was discussing last week. Last week we learned how to determine your own Shan Ten. This is a useful technique to learn in order to adjust your play style accordingly.
Now I discuss how to predict your opponent's Shan Ten. Since you cannot see your opponent's hand, the best guess at their Shan Ten range is through their discards. Think about it logically; someone who discards many tiles either has a very low Shan Ten (Close to winning, so they are only looking for one or two specific tiles) or a very high Shan Ten (Less likely, although this may be a sign that they are going for a special hand, i.e. 7 Pairs or 13 Orphans).
Granted, when playing computer opponents, you don't actually get to see them remove a tile from their own hand, which is an easy sign of decreasing Shan Ten (Remember that if you replace one of your potential discards to form a meld, you subtract 1 Shan Ten). Still, let's look at the situation from last week again:
Here we see South player declaring Riichi after their fourth discard. From this, we can ascertain that their Shan Ten count was between 1 and 5. It would be very rare (Probably never) for a computer to not declare Riichi if possible, so then we narrow down to between 2 and 5. The most probable number is either 2 or 3, depending on how you interpret the discards.
Their first discard is 2 Pin. Since it isn't a terminal or honor, we can assume that the computer isn't going for a half or full flush of Pin, and we can also assume that they do not hold 1, 2, or 3 Pin.
The alternate assumption is that they drew that tile during their turn, and discarded as it did not decrease their Shan Ten number. This latter assumption is more likely, but again since we cannot physically see which tile they discard, it is only an assumption. In real life, the former assumption would hold if they kept their draw and discarded the 2 Pin from their own hand.
The next two discards are both honors. Therefore, we can easily assume that these were their draws, and that they are not going for a hand that utilizes honors. Alternatively, these were in their hand from the start, but that would mean they kept drawing tiles that lowered their Shan Ten count. It becomes less probable that they keep drawing necessary tiles when the Shan Ten count is close to 2 or 1.
Finally, their Riichi discard is 4 Man, so they reached Tenpai as of the fourth draw. Then they win by Tsumo on their sixth draw.
I'll end by repeating that against computer opponents, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to know their Shan Ten count just by their discards. Their discards can give you an idea as to what kind of hand they are building. In addition, any melds they form by taking a tile from the pool essentially lowers their potential Shan Ten count by 3 (As a meld is a sequence of 3 tiles, and since the meld is visible, the highest possible Shan Ten is therefore 11, however low a probability that may be).
The next topic will probably be reading hands based on the discard pool; a very important technique to learn if you don't want to deal into someone.
12:42 - Bought sushi lunch nearby. Shift starts at 1, so I'm early. Haven't signed in yet and will take around 10 minute to get there. From now on, I'll only take note of "interesting" things that happen. I'll also note every half hour. After many hours of doing this, there isn't much left to comment on.
1:00 - No lunch today; apparently there's been a flood and I need to divert my attention as such. Interesting just got a new name.
1:30 - The gist is that elevators aren't working and paths are blocked so I have to redirect and prohibit some elevator usage. Will be busy; little updates as a result
2:26 - Had a yogurt break because the cafeteria is right next to where I'm stationed
2:52 - Taking a short sit down break because standing for 2 hours straight is tiring. Watching a doctor (At least I think it's a doctor) play the piano in the cafeteria. I notice that the pedal is squeaky; must be a very old piano (Sure looks like it). Due to the lack of commentary, I'll do a small writeup when I get home. Back to work for one more hour.
3:01 - Now there's a giant garbage bin in the middle of the place. How pleasant
3:45 - Someone stole a sandwich from the cafeteria. Followed him for a bit but lost him in the maze that is the hospital.
So here's the small writeup I promised.
Ironically, the day I decided not to only comment on interesting things, this happens. Apparently the situation was that due to a water leak or something of the sort, most of the elevators in the major main building (I normally work in the main building for out patients) ceased to function. The situation had been somewhat alleviated by the time I got here for the shift. I was redirected to help in the major main building, and they sent me to deal with Level 2 (The building has at least 15 floors).
There were only 3 elevators working on Level 2, and my main job was to redirect people accordingly; crowd control in a sense. There were 3 other elevators working, but those are supposed to be for doctors and staff. That didn't stop regular visitors from using them, and they didn't really tell me to enforce that rule so I let it be.
Since this was the major main building, it was more busy for me than any normal day at the out patient building. As a result, updates were few on my part.
The worst part was I bought sushi prior to coming, and I thought it was going to be another slow day, so I could sit down and eat lunch. But it wasn't and I left my lunch in one of the lockers for 3 hours. Suffice to say that I didn't really want to eat it afterward. It was a bit of serendipity that I was sent to Level 2 because there was a cafeteria right next to the elevators. Eating something big would be unprofessional while working, so in the end I had a small cup of yogurt.
Speaking of food, one of the visitors informed me that someone stole a sandwich from the cafeteria. There isn't much I can do about that, so I just followed to suspect. Unfortunately, due to me keeping my distance and remaining incognito, I eventually lost him. At that time my shift was about to end, so I left and signed out.
No volunteering next week due to another midterm. Will think of a filler post for that.